Emerging, Umprecedented Collaboration- EARTH EX BLACK SKY

Charting a Course Complex Catastrophes

As the clock ticks we draw ever closer to a Black Sky and ever closer cascading catastrophes.  A Black Sky Hazard is a catastrophic event that severely disrupts the normal functioning of our critical infrastructures in multiple regions for long durations, from days to years unto generations.  On August 21 the third annual global event will be conducted to prepare.  It will be an Emergency All-sector Response Transnational Hazard Exercise

EARTH EX 2019

People around the world are engaging and preparing for the coming Black Sky ahead. Corporate and government teams, community leaders, individuals and family's anywhere in the world build interconnected resilience planning to sustain our future but the most critical are spiritual preparations.  The End Day Black Sky will be symbolic of the condition of mankind's spiritual condition.

EMP – High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse

A nuclear detonation in the upper atmosphere creates an electromagnetic pulse (EMP), a powerful, damaging electromagnetic field covering a subcontinent-scale region. 

It is important to note that, due to the statistical nature of field characteristics, most conventional computers and low voltage electronics will likely be unaffected and available to be reenergized if power grid operation can be restored – a key factor in enabling cost effective power grid protection strategies – and in preserving the viability of most of the customer “load” that will also be essential to such strategies. 

The size of the affected region depends on burst height, and certain features of the warhead.

Based on the full range of U.S. and international government studies and laboratory hardware vulnerability tests, and on U.S. and Russian nuclear testing, an EMP strike on an unprotected power grid, especially given its large, multi-region footprint, would cause an extended duration, subcontinent-scale duration power outage, and would precipitate cascading, direct and indirect failures of all other critical societal infrastructures.

EMP has been studied and addressed diligently as a military threat for over 50 years.  In the United States, EMP has been treated by DOD as an active, growing hazard for decades. In 2011 the U.S. Defense Science Board renewed and highlighted this policy, issuing an interim report citing progress, coupled with ongoing recommendations for EMP survivability of certain DOD assets.  In 2015, DOD expanded these recommendations to mandate EMP protection of “all mission critical facilities,” and announced its plans to reopen, upgrade and reoccupy the Cheyenne Mountain military complex due to its intrinsic EMP-protected characteristics.

The Congressional EMP Commission noted that deterring attack from terrorists who acquire nuclear weapons would be especially difficult because “such groups have no state identity, have only one or a few weapons, and are motivated to attack the US without regard for their own safety.”

The United States and its partners abroad conduct a variety of programs to reduce the likelihood that terrorist groups can acquire the nuclear materials and other components necessary for building such weapons. The Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program, for example, helps secure nuclear materials in the former Soviet Union.  While these programs have demonstrated substantial progress in reducing the threat that nuclear materials will be stolen, current estimates assess that, as of January 2012, there were still approximately 1440 tons of highly enriched uranium and around 500 tons of separated plutonium stockpiled globally -- providing a vast array of potential targets for terrorists seeking such materials.  Other concerns include increasing proliferation of “nuclear weapon precursor” technology, and security concerns associated with the growing stockpiles of nuclear warheads and missiles in the control of unstable or unfriendly nations.

IEMI - Intentional Electromagnetic Interference

The pulse from an Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) devices can be far higher in magnitude and frequency than EMP, though its effective range is far shorter, affecting only discrete “point” targets.  When manufactured as weapons, IEMI devices, also known as Radio Frequency (RF) weapons, can in some cases produce multiple, repeated pulses, and are typically quite mobile. A primary concern for such weapons is similar to that for Coordinated Physical Assault (see below), with the potential for severe, national consequences resulting from coordinated use on critical infrastructure nodes.

This hazard has been characterized as a “dumb” cyber threat, as the assets most vulnerable are computers and electronics.  IEMI weapons can damage or destroy microprocessors, corrupt or wipe out data on hard drives, and could cause misoperation of relays and electrical arcing in high power system components such as transformers.  Commercial and military versions of these systems are available or under development in a growing number of nations.

Cyber Terrorism

While industry and government have made good progress in strengthening security against cyber threats, the destructiveness and sophistication of cyber weapons have grown rapidly.  Critical infrastructures now typically work to continually advance and adapt protective measures, network architecture designs and security protocols.

The pervasive and covert nature of this threat has dramatically affected the architecture of security protocols in the United States and allied governments.  During the 20^th Century, the traditional security  framework of the military-industrial complex was characterized by a clean division of responsibility, with private industry producing weapons and services for the Federal government, and the nation’s armed forces providing security for the nation.  Now, utilities are attacked many thousands of times every day by cyber weapons, and are ultimately responsible to their customers and shareholders for securing their own systems and operations against such threats.  To help meet this novel challenge, Federal agencies have partnered with utilities to create an unprecedented array of mechanisms for information sharing and security collaboration.

A similar transformation in security architecture is underway within the government – in particular, between states and the Federal Departments traditionally responsible for security challenges.  Now, state-governors who have the primary responsibility for the public health and safety of their citizens must directly address security concerns stemming from cyber-threats.

The Cyber Threat to Electric Infrastructure

One of the most critical security priorities for state-governors has become protection of electric infrastructure against targeted attack.  An extended power outage caused by a cyber-attack would jeopardize the functioning of hospitals, municipal water systems and other infrastructure vital for saving and sustaining lives, as well as directly threatening state information networks and functions that are vital for continuity of government and the delivery of essential services.

As cyber-attacks become more frequent, energy systems are increasingly being targeted. DHS’s Industrial Control Systems Cyber Emergency Response Team (ICS-CERT) reported responding to 198 cyber incidents in fiscal year 2012 across all critical infrastructure sectors.  Forty-one percent of these incidents involved the energy sector, particularly electricity.  The number of such reported attacks grew to 256 in 2013, with over half targeting the energy sector.

This targeting of the electric infrastructure is one of the central concerns that caused the widely reported, recent conclusion by the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) that cyber-attacks are eclipsing terrorism as the primary threat facing the United States.

A key, central concern, for both the electric grid and other lifeline infrastructures, is that confidence in assuring the security of such infrastructures against a determined, carefully planned cyber attack on systems critical to national grid continuity is far less than 100%.  As a result, it is now broadly accepted that the risk of a consequent multi-region, long duration power outage, associated with widely distributed grid IT, OT and critical hardware damage, is significant. 

Coordinated Physical Assault

Like cyber or IEMI attack scenarios, Coordinated physical attack on critical infrastructure sector nodes, could create power outages of exceptionally wide geographic scope and long duration.

In addition, the risk of integrating physical with cyber and/or IEMI in a combined arms campaign represents another, disturbing area of risk.  Military strategists have long understood that by attacking with multiple means at once, attackers can achieve a greater effect than if each element were used separately or sequentially.  In a classic demonstration of the value of combined arms strategies, Napoleon’s Grand Armee employed infantry, artillery and cavalry in integrated operations to help him achieve decisive victories.  Modern militaries frequently combine air, infantry and armor forces to create such synergies.

Gerry Cauley, president and CEO of The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), expressed his apprehension about such a combined arms attack to the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee:

“I am most concerned about coordinated physical and cyber-attacks intended to disable elements of the power grid or deny electricity to specific targets, such as government or business centers, military installations, or other infrastructures.”

Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta spoke along similar lines:

“The most destructive scenarios involve cyber actors launching several attacks on our critical infrastructure at one time, in combination with a physical attack on our country.  Attackers could also seek to disable or degrade critical military systems and communication networks. The collective result of these kinds of attacks could be a “cyber Pearl Harbor:” an attack that would cause physical destruction and the loss of life. In fact, it would paralyze and shock the nation and create a new, profound sense of vulnerability.”

Seismic Event – High Magnitude Earthquake

In many regions of the United States and other nations, earthquakes risk causing substantial physical disruption, with associated long duration power outages. The New Madrid seismic zone exemplifies these risks. The New Madrid fault roughly parallels the Mississippi River, and produced a 7.7 earthquake in 1812. 

A recurrence of that earthquake today would damage or destroy many hundreds of electric substations, high voltage transformers and transmission lines, generators, and other grid components over a multistate region including Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, and potentially other States.  The Department of Energy has assessed that such an event would not only disrupt power in the New Madrid region but far beyond, with outages potentially affecting 100-150 million people across the Northeast, Southeast and Midwest United States.

GMD – Geomagnetic Disturbance (Severe Space Weather)

Typically many times each year, the sun ejects a portion of its coronal mass into space.  If the highly- energetic, electrically and magnetically charged matter characteristic of these Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) encounters the Earth it distorts the Earth’s geomagnetic field, inducing potentially damaging GIC (Geomagnetically Induced Current) in long transmission lines and transformers, the “ligaments” of a national-scale power grid.

Severe Space Weather-induced Geomagnetic Disturbance (GMD) can last anywhere from several minutes to several days.   Depending on the magnitude and duration of unplanned, transient current and the design and condition of transformers, especially the critical Extra High Voltage (EHV) transformers, voltage instabilities and transformer damage or degradation can occur.

In modern times, satellite-based sensors observe powerful Coronal Mass Ejections relatively frequently.  Historically, the frequency at which powerful CMEs have affected the earth is estimated as once per 100 – 200 years.  The largest CME-event in relatively recent history, the “Carrington Event,” occurred in 1859, followed 62 years later by another event of similar magnitude, the 1921 “Railroad Storm.”  Although both events caused serious damage to the global telegraph network and the related systems that existed at those times, effects of similar storms on modern power grids would be incomparable.

Such an event almost took place quite recently, when a Coronal Mass Ejection occurred in July, 2012.  According to researchers from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), if the eruption had occurred one week earlier massive clouds of magnetized plasma would have struck the earth. The resulting geomagnetic storm, according to NASA scientist Daniel Baker, would have been at least as strong as the Carrington event.

Hurricanes and Other Severe Weather Events

The Edison Electric Institute’s report, “Before and After the Storm,” documents the nationwide array of investments and emerging best practices that investor-owned utilities are making in response to lessons learned from Sandy, and in anticipation of more severe events in the future.  In some cases, public utility commissions and state and local leaders are also undertaking a range of initiatives to help them assess requirements and review proposals for such investments, both in the states immediately affected by Sandy and far beyond.

There is compelling evidence that the increase in severe weather patterns in recent decades signifies a general increasing severity in these hazards, either due to periodic, heuristic factors, or to the climate change effects induced by modern society. 

Department of Energy and other government-sponsored reports highlight the risk that climate change will produce increasingly extreme weather events and other challenges to grid resilience.  DOE found in 2013 that “increasing temperatures, decreasing water availability, more intense storm events and sea level rise will each independently, and in some cases in combination, affect the ability of the United States to produce and transmit electricity….”

The 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment noted that “extreme storm surge events at high tides are expected to increase, raising the risk of inundating energy facilities such as power plants, refineries, pipelines, and transmission and distribution networks.” 

These risk factors, along with the risk of infrequent “mega-events” falling outside the range of projected extreme storm events, suggest that future weather-event damage will not remain within the limits of recent experience, or within the bounds of straightforward scaling from such experience.

Final Note on Exercises

I have had decades of experience participating and designing exercises.  Exercises are designed over long periods of time to address and test certain objectives so that gaps can be fixed.  In every exercise that I have ever been involved with there is the test exercise and there simultaneously is a real world event.  It has happened every single time.  You need to be prepared for that eventuality, whether you participate in this exercise or not.  We are headed for a Dark Sky as we plummet towards fulfillment of prophecy.  God speed, my friends.

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 Author Information

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Going where angels fear to tread...

 

Celeste has worked as a contractor for Homeland Security and FEMA. Her training and activation's include the infamous day of 911, flood and earthquake operations, mass casualty exercises, and numerous other operations. Celeste is FEMA certified and has completed the Professional Development Emergency Management Series.

• Train-the-Trainer
• Incident Command
• Integrated EM: Preparedness, Response, Recovery, Mitigation
• Emergency Plan Design including all Emergency Support Functions
• Principles of Emergency Management
• Developing Volunteer Resources
• Emergency Planning and Development
• Leadership and Influence, Decision Making in Crisis
• Exercise Design and Evaluation
• Public Assistance Applications
• Emergency Operations Interface
• Public Information Officer
• Flood Fight Operations
• Domestic Preparedness for Weapons of Mass Destruction
• Incident Command (ICS-NIMS)
• Multi-Hazards for Schools
• Rapid Evaluation of Structures-Earthquakes
• Weather Spotter for National Weather Service
• Logistics, Operations, Communications
• Community Emergency Response Team Leader
• Behavior Recognition

And more….

Celeste grew up in a military & governmental home with her father working for the Naval Warfare Center, and later as Assistant Director for Public Lands and Natural Resources, in both Washington State and California.

Celeste also has training and expertise in small agricultural lobbying, Integrative/Functional Medicine, asymmetrical and symmetrical warfare, and Organic Farming.

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